The Buttigieg boom in Iowa is no illusion

It's not just one outlying poll.

The consensus of polls now shows Pete Buttigieg among the leaders among Iowa Democrats planning to attend February's precinct caucuses, and the Des Moines Register-CNN poll just out has him leading the field by nine points.

A great deal can happen between now and February 3, and it remains to be seen how Mayor Pete will handle being the front-runner. Expect him to be the focal point of attacks from the Warren, Sanders, and Biden camps especially, but also from just about everybody else. He's an attractive candidate in many ways, he's young, and he's gay, which gives him a certain fashionable quality on the Democratic left. And he's moderate enough not to scare the socks off Democrats who really do have the defeat of Donald Trump as their highest priority.

But discomfort with Biden and Warren has opened up a path to the nomination for somebody else. If he'd gotten into the race earlier, I'd expect Obama buddy and former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick to be the logical candidate. As things stand, I think he'll be next year's version of the late Fred Thompson, someone who could have made a real run for it if he'd wanted it badly enough and laid the groundwork but who just waited too long.

Nothing is written in stone for the Democrats. Joe Biden at least at this point isn't inevitable. And even Iowa Democrats unwilling to go down in flames with Warren or Sanders are willing to look elsewhere. In a year in which the only real contest is for the right to represent that majority of the American people who are sick and tired of Donald Trump, I expect Democrats to be carried away by enthusiasm for a charismatic figure less readily than they have in the past. Hopefully, they'll think this thing through carefully, remember the danger that even a decisive popular vote victory might not mean carrying the Electoral College, and pick someone who can go head-to-head with Our National Humiliation in the toss-up states next November 3.