Notes from a pandemic

I looked out the window a couple of hours ago. You'd think this was the zombie apocalypse or something. Shortly after noon on a Friday, and the downtown streets were deserted. No cars anywhere in sight. One lonely pedestrian, simply standing there, alone on a street corner.


I just saw a tweet from a Trump supporter who claims that it's impossible for Italy to have had more COVID cases than China because China has so many more people. Of course, she fails to take into account how much easier it is a closed society like China to clamp down on the activities of the average citizen than it is in the democratic West. Italy's chronic state of economic and political meltdown, on the other hand, made an effective response impossible even once the will was summoned to attempt one all but impossible. That China would naturally be better on shutting everything down than Italy is so obvious that it shouldn't need to be pointed out.

A lady in my building- not, I'm fairly certain, a denizen of Trumpworld- just informed me that the virus is the result of "biological warfare" because it "came from somewhere else."

Meanwhile, at home, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker is reportedly about to issue a "shelter-in-place" order similar to that in effect in California. Illinoisans will be allowed to take walks in addition to making trips to pharmacies, grocery stores, and gas stations (?!).

A couple of days ago, there were 17 COVID cases reported in Iowa. Today, there have been 44. We've now had two in Polk County. We're nowhere near the place where California and Illinois are. But pandemics grow exponentially. Each new case usually represents several additional people infected by a patient, often before he or she is even diagnosed. This is a crisis that, in the best-case scenario, will take months to get past, not weeks.  The "flattening of the curve," unfortunately, carries with it a corollary: the flatter the curve, the longer the crisis will last. The greatest danger may be that the pattern of the 1918 "Spanish flu" will repeat itself: that we will appear to be past the crisis after several months, but that a new outbreak will occur when classes resume in schools and various other social activities resume, and the cycle of denial and inaction will repeat itself. Nobody ever went broke betting on human stupidity.

The economic impact of the pandemic is difficult to estimate, but a crisis that could make the Great Recession of 2008 look mild by comparison isn't out of the question as social distancing and the closing of businesses keep more and more people out of work. It's a sign of how serious things are that Mitt Romney signed on to a proposal George McGovern made back in 1972 and Andrew Yang renewed months ago during his campaign for the presidency: government stimulus checks of $1,000 to each American. Even the Trump administration has taken up the suggestion and I have no doubt that Mr. Trump will try to take credit for it, as he does for everything else. The proposal is on the fast track, although the minimum payment apparently will be closer to $600.

For the second time in twelve years, we've been reminded of just how fragile our world is, and how quickly things can start falling down around our ears. Theologically, we're reminded by this of our dependence on God; politically, we're forced to confront the fragility of human institutions and the importance of sound decisions by wise leadership.

We will get through this. And in getting through it, may we learn what we need to learn.