The president awakens

Miracle of miracles, it appears that Dr. Fauci's prediction of 100,000 to 200,000 American deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic has aroused our Conspiracy Theorist-in-Chief from his fantasies to the sober reality that this virus is a deadly threat that will, indeed, cause more suffering than the economic consequences of protecting us all from it.

"I do not take any responsibility at all," his response to being confronted with the consequences of his dilatory reaction to a looming threat he could easily have seen coming and prepared for (naturally, he now claims that he did see it coming, though why he continued until a couple of days ago to minimize and scoff at it remains unexplained) may well wind up being the quotation history most associates with this most unpresidential of presidents; it certainly expresses, however unintentionally, a summary of his leadership style. It remains to be seen how long the more cultlike segment of his following takes to join him in acknowledging reality, despite the threat it poses to the economy he did little to create but which is essentially his only hope of re-election. Preliminary indications suggest that they, too, will continue to insist that his response was appropriate all along. When a vaccine is finally found, they will probably credit him for its discovery. After all, they already are giving him credit for the stimulus bill Mitt Romney suggested and which passed both houses of Congress with bipartisan support.

The experts now expect the peak of the pandemic will come in a couple of weeks. As Dr. Fauci continually reminds us, we can't predict when the crisis will end; as he puts it, "The virus will decide that." The death rate as well as the number of cases in the United States- which, due in part to its slow response to an obvious threat, now leads the world in active cases- continues to climb. It was 1.5 percent a couple of days ago; now it's 1.9. Of course, that's merely from the number of reported cases; the actual death rate is probably much lower since most of the people who contract the virus never get very sick. The reported death toll from the "Spanish flu" in 1918-1919- the worst pandemic in recorded history- was 1.2%, but the percentage of unreported cases was probably lower, and perhaps much lower. I gather that the actual death toll will probably turn out to be something like one percent.

Uncertainty abounds. Will COVID-19 return in a second and perhaps a third wave, like the 1918 flu did? Will it come back next year as a seasonal disease, like the flu?  No one knows. But at last, our Federal government will begin now to respond appropriately, more or less. And that in itself should be a relief to all of us.

Meanwhile, Tucker Carlson, one of the many conservative journalists who have been driven off the deep end by the Trump debacle, continues to insist that Joe Biden is "in decline" and that Andrew Cuomo, whose leadership in the ongoing crisis in New York has been exemplary, rather than Biden will face President Trump in November. On one level, Carlson's ongoing remarks about Biden's mental status amuse me, coming as they do from a supporter of our most eccentric, aberrant, and bizarre president. On another, it can't be denied that Cuomo would have Mr. Trump for breakfast.

Short of an outright mental breakdown, though, I don't see Biden throwing in the towel or being replaced. In the unlikely event that happens, the supporters of repudiated rival Bernie Sanders will doubtless claim that by rights he, as the second-place primary finisher, should inherit the nomination. The argument is no more convincing now than it was when Mr. Trump a similar one our years ago, at the point at which it was clear that he would have the most delegates but might have been stopped short of an outright majority at Cleveland. The bottom line is that both men- yes, Mr. Trump as well- were decisively rejected by most of the primary voters. Mr. Trump's percentage of the Republican primary vote hovered around a third throughout most of the campaign, rising to about a quarter near the end. Sanders will have a bigger chunk of the Democratic vote this time out, but the fact remains that his agenda has been repudiated by the majority. In the unlikely event that Biden drops out, the party's leaders, as they should, will make a pragmatic choice of a replacement who represents what passes for a centrist faction of the Democratic party. Amy Klochobar would probably be a more representative choice, but Cuomo has the same appeal that the now-discredited Rudy Giuliani had back when he was a national hero for his leadership of New York's response to 9/11.

But that isn't going to happen. The bottom line is that any criticism of Biden also applies to Mr. Trump, only more so. The national quarantine seems to be wreaking havoc on Mr. Biden's campaign, which he is conducting from his basement while the president hogs the headlines. But in the end, if the American people have the common sense I think they do, it will hurt the president whose administration has been characterized by an egotistical refusal to listen to people with more knowledge than he has, a pattern of behavior which in the end will obviously have made the current pandemic far worse than it had to be.