COVID's first wave is far from over
It seemed that things were getting better. Fewer and fewer people on the coasts and in the big cities were being infected with SARS CoV-2 and developing COVID-19. States- and especially those who had not been hard-hit by the pandemic- were beginning to "open up." Despite talk of a "second wave" of the virus similar to what happened in 1918-1919, there was a general sense that life might be returning to normal, at least for a few months.
But suddenly, it's all in doubt.
As states start to ease restrictions, infection rates are rising. Outside of New York, the epicenter of the pandemic in the United States, things are getting worse rather than better, with the nation currently experiencing 20,000 new infections and 1,000 deaths a day. And the rural states in which the virus hit late and in which the healthcare system was not seriously tested, there are ominous signs.
This had been the week during which the University of Washington's tracking project had predicted that both new infections and deaths would peak here in Iowa. Deaths are now projected to peak on June 9, and new infections continue to increase at a steady rate into August, though it should be remembered that the latter number will inevitably increase as testing increases (if there's one thing everyone agrees about, it's that far more people have contracted COVID than the numbers indicate since only those with serious symptoms are apt to be diagnosed).
The University of Washington project, which had been predicting a little more than 70,000 deaths from the virus in the United Staes, suddenly raised its estimate to 134,475 a couple of days ago, and while it continues to predict a continuing decline in deaths per day from here on out, doesn't show the total number of deaths approaching its maximum until July.
Again, due to increased testing, we can expect the number of reported infections to steadily rise, and that should not be alarming. Since epidemiologists are agreed that testing is the key to getting a handle on when it will be safe to open things up if anything the increase in the number of people being tested is a good sign. But the virus is just now beginning to hit rural America with unexpected force, and an internal Trump administration model reportedly projects deaths almost doubling as states relax restrictions, with new cases reaching 200,000 a day.
The administration, not surprisingly, rejects that model. The administration and its supporters continue to minimize the threat posed by the pandemic, Yet the overwhelming majority of the American people continue to support keeping businesses closed, social distancing, and the continuation of restrictions until the experts tell us that it's safe to relax them. And clearly, the economy is not going to emerge from the current crisis by the November election in any case,
Yet COVID denialism, for the most part arising from political partisanship but also from personal experiences which contradict the statistics, continues to abound, especially on the extreme right. At the same time, the raw facts have convinced most Americans that we need to continue to hunker down until it's safe to stop speak for themselves.
Part of the problem, too, seems to be that many on the right are still operating from outdated assumptions about COVID, and don't take into account the apparently large number of (by definition, unreported) cases of mildly-ill or asymptomatic middle-aged and young people dying of strokes and heart attacks due to the virus's promotion of abnormal blood clotting. Many still don't understand that the CDC recommendation (being made into a requirement in some states) that people wear masks in public is designed, not to protect the mask-wearer, but to protect others, given the evidence that perhaps a majority of infections are asymptomatic and literally none of us knows for sure that we aren't shedding SARS CoV-2 viruses and spreading COVID to others.
Add to this the deep strain of populist/libertarian individuality and suspicion of the government which is especially virulent among the poorly-informed and right-wing extremists, and a settled matter in most of our minds and one which simple common sense should make non-controversial will likely continue to divide us.
The second-wave aside, the first is far from over, and farther from being over than most of us have assumed.
ADDENDUM: It seems that POTUS is already misrepresenting the IHME projections to discredit them.
ADDENDUM II: Howard Forman is right. There is one thing Mr. Trump should do as quickly as possible if he truly wants to save the economy and the lives of Americans.
He should resign and let Vice-President Pence have a crack at doing a job he- Mr. Trump- is clearly not up to.
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