Tim Miller's take on tomorrow's election. I agree with him.

 

Tim Miller of The Bulwark (one of the two Never Trump conservative web publications I consult daily, the other being The Dispatch) seems to think that the election will turn out the way came up the map below illustrates. 

I can't find anything on it I disagree with. This is pretty much the way I think it's going to play out, too. Lighter shades indicate some degree of uncertainty.

Under the sponsorship of the Des Moines Register, the Selzer Poll- one of the best, according to Nate Silver-  issued its final call on the race in Iowa yesterday. It gave President Trump a seven-point lead. My gut tells me that it's about right. Unfortunately, from my perspective, I see him carrying Iowa by more than most of the other polls predict. Unfortunately, I see Trump enabler Sen. Joni Ernst turning back a challenge from Democrat Theresa Greenfield. I also have a hard time seeing Texas turning blue no matter what the polls say. Georgia, maybe. But not Texas.

But the other "swing states" margins seem large enough to survive a polling error even bigger than the ones in 2016. As a result, I expect Joe Biden to be elected, and I wouldn't be a bit surprised if, despite all the warnings, we knew it tomorrow night, even fairly early in the evening. Florida and North Carolina will report early; Florida has been tallying its early vote as they've gone along, and both states, being on the Atlantic seaboard, should be decided before we get sleepy. If Biden carries Florida, it's over; if the state goes to Trump, Biden still has several paths to 270 electoral votes and the presidency. But in that case, we'll have to wait after all.

If Biden carries both North Carolina and Florida, it could signal a national landslide (depending on the margins). That would be a scenario that conceivably might cause the Republican Party to rethink its commitment to Trumpism, ideally touching off a de-Trumpification program to return to its more traditional, more honorable, and more rational posture. But I'm not going to hold my breath. Too many Republican elected officials have committed themselves to the President's cult of personality and said and done too many things to call their commitment to the rule of law, the Constitution, the Separation of Powers, binding norms of civil and appropriate behavior, and commitment to reality into question to expect such a thing to come easily even in the face of a Biden landslide and the thorough repudiation of Donald Trump by the American people which he so richly deserves and upon which the long-term survival of the GOP probably depends.

Anyway, here's the map. We'll see how closely it corresponds to what actually happens.

Real Clear Politics is slightly less optimistic about Biden's chances, but there don't seem to be many practical differences. RCP simply calls North Carolina and Georgia for Trump rather than Biden. 

Anything can happen, of course. But especially with the record turnout, I like Joe's chances. A lot.