Florida is breaking for Mitt

Two new polls have Mitt Romney leading Newt Gingrich in Florida by eight and nine points, respectively.

With three days before the primary, the wheels seem to be falling off the former House speaker's campaign. Florida is followed by a series of primaries in which Romney will be heavily favored. For the second time this year, the Gingrich campaign has risen from the depths to the heights, only to fall back again into the depths.

Mitt seems to have turned things around by arguing that he's a self-made man who made his fortune through hard work and savvy investment, and refuses to apologize for it. Florida Republicans- briefly distracted by Newt's debating ability and all the attention given Romney's success in minimizing his income  tax liability- are eating it up.

I'm going to revise my prediction. I think it will be Mitt by eight points. That seems to be the number most of the recent polls are clustering around.

HT: Drudge

The Florida polls are all over the place...

...and the consensus of the pundits seems to be that it's going to be close. But while the polls give varied results, the majority of them aren't all that close- or all that ambivalent: after trailing him earlier, in the wake of South Carolina, Romney seems to have caught Gingrich, and to be opening up a lead of sorts.

The winners of last night's final debate seem to have been Romney and Santorum. The loser: Gingrich.

My prediction: Romney by three to five points.

HT: Real Clear Politics

Newt, not Mitt, is right about the moon base

Mitt Romney said in the debate last night that he would fire an employee who came to him with an idea like Newt Gingrich's proposed lunar base.

He's wrong. He should do his research.

As I've pointed out many times, from an accounting point of view the Federal government has never spent money more wisely than on the original moon program. The growth it caused in the economy (yes, in Florida, but also all over the nation) resulted in tax revenues exponentially greater than the initial outlay. We're strapped for cash right now, but by all historical precedent, if it were possible to raise the necessary money without increasing an already unacceptable deficit even more radically than Barack Obama is already raising it, a program to establish a permanent base on the Moon and- even more so- to send a manned expedition to Mars would provide more effective stimulus to our lagging economy than almost anything else- and might even shrink the deficit in the long run.

When, as I hope, President Romney takes office next January, I strongly believe that he should reconsider his position.

HT: Drudge

Biden strikes yet AGAIN!

You gotta love this guy (if you're a Republican!)

Joe Biden's latest exploit: imitating "Peggy the Eastern European call center man" (not an Indian, actually) while talking about outsourcing:



Can you even begin to imagine what the response would be if he weren't a Democrat?

Ann Coulter is right: Nominate Gingrich, re-elect Obama

Ann Coulter is exactly right: if the Republicans nominate Newt Gingrich, Barack Obama is a cinch for a second term, economy or no economy.

Here is what Newt- who, to hear him tell it, is the reincarnation of Ronald Reagan- had to say about the Gipper when the latter was alive:



Gingrich, who won the South Carolina primary, is currently ahead in the Florida polls.

HT: Drudge

Romney gets the last laugh on taxes

Oops. Looks like Mitt Romney's critics stepped in it when they demanded that he release his income tax returns.

Romney paid 42% his income in taxes and donations to charity. Jennifer Rubin of the Washington Post lists the Federal expenditures Mitt paid for out of his own pocket here.

It seems that when all the deductions and tax shelters are taken into account, Mitt's effective tax rate was 13%. Nobody, remember, has suggested that he has done anything illegal. The question seems rather obvious: would the American people prefer a president smart enough to take every legal tax break to which he is entitled, or one who...well, isn't?

Meanwhile, new front-runner presumptive Newt Gingrich may already have stepped in it. The Commission on Presidential Debates has ruled that the audiences at future debates must remain silent. Newt- being his typical, impulsive self- promptly threatened to boycott the rest of the debates if the audience can't cheer.

The problem is that it's the debates that have been working for Newt. If he stays away, he'll be forfeiting his only real advantage and letting the commercials carry the burden of the campaign. Which- as we saw in Iowa and New Hampshire- is not exactly to the former speaker's advantage.

I continue to think that somewhere along the path to the nomination Newt will self-destruct. It may already be happening.

A rarity: a Paul is actually right about what the Constitution says

Rand Paul may be as crazy as his dad, and his behavior in refusing to submit to a pat-down  by the TSA after a full-body scanner failed while he was boarding a plane in Nashville may have been childish and irresponsible, but he's right:the Constitution guarantees members of Congress immunity from arrest while traveling to and from sessions.

Of course, the TSA denies that he was actually ever detained, which means that the question is academic. But still, it's good to see a member of the Paul family basing a constitutional argument on what the document actually says, rather than extrapolating some absurdity on the basis of what it doesn't say.

HT: Drudge

Uh-oh.

A new Rasmussen poll has President Obama's Florida Republican Primary stand-in, Newt Gingrich, up nine points over Mitt Romney.

No word on whether Jon Huntsman might consider a third-party bid.

77% have a favorable opinion of Romney, 69% have a favorable opinion of Gingrich, 64% have a favorable opinion of Rick Santorum- and only 33% have a favorable opinion of Ron Paul, who trails badly and has chosen not to contest the Florida Primary even though he is on the ballot, but will probably claim victory anyway no matter what the result.

Who has the best personal character? 41% say Romney, 30% Santorum, 11% Gingrich and 10% Paul. Evidentally somebody is paying attention to that newsletter business.

52% expect Romney to be the eventual nominee.

I agree with the 52% despite the Florida figures; Romney is best positioned for the long haul. But a Gingrich victory in Florida raises the real possibility that the Republican party may self-destruct and nominate themselves out of any shot at what ought to be a winnable election.

HT: Drudge

Rest in peace, JoPa

When Joe Paterno learned about the Jerry Sandusky affair, he did what the law and school policy required: he reported it to his superiors. It was their responsibility to notify the police.

They fired JoePa for following the rules. Perhaps he should have done more than the law and school policy required. No, undoubtedly he should have done more. But on this particular planet, there is no possible justice in having fired him for not doing so.

Two weeks later, one of the two or three greatest coaches in the history of college football died, his legend tainted and his career ended in undeserved shame.

Were I a member of the Paterno family, I would make it clear that representatives of Penn State are unwelcome at the funeral. And I think the university should seriously consider Franco Harris's suggestion that JoPa be reinstated for four games next season. Posthumously.

President Obama: the killing of unborn human beings is a "family matter" and a "fundamental Constitutional right"

On the thirty-ninth anniversary of the Supreme Court's tragic, ill-reasoned decision in Roe v. Wade, President Obama has made it clear that he still buys into the silly notion that the killing of living human beings is a "family matter" in which the government ought not to intrude- and that, indeed, it is a "fundamental constitutional right" despite being found nowhere in the Constitution.

We must defeat this guy in November. It's a moral imperative.

My guess: South Carolina Republicans will vote for Obama today

The results won't be known for a few hours yet, but all indications are that the late surge by Newt Gingrich will overcome Mitt Romney's long-standing lead in South Carolina. The former speaker has apparently capitalized on a couple of strong debate performances at a time when Romney has been reeling from questions concerning his personal finances (no wrongdoing has been proven or even specifically suggested).

It should be noted that Speaker Gingrich has an approval rating nationally about twenty points lower than President Obama's. Governor Romney, on the other hand, as an approval rating about five or six points higher than the president. Gingrich- like Santorum and certainly Paul- is unelectable, and a vote for any of them is in effect a vote to re-elect Mr. Obama.

Nothing is certain. The ABC interview of Gingrich's second wife, Marianne, might still derail the former speaker in socially conservative South Carolina. But while momentum may be generated suddenly, it takes a little longer to bleed away. My guess is Gingrich tonight, by a narrow margin.

And Romney vs. Obama in November. The former Massachusetts governor is the Republican party's only option to conceding the election in advance by nominating one of the other three, none of whom would stand a chance.

The big question here is the impact South Carolina will have on Florida. Defeats in both states (coupled, of course, with the belated discovery that Rick Santorum, and not Gov. Romney, actually won the Iowa Caucuses) could well slow down the momentum with which the race has seemed to be moving toward an inevitable Romney nomination.

But I still don't think Mitt has reason to be worried.

ADDENDUM: It wasn't so narrow. And maybe now I'm just a little worried.

Naw. Bad Newt will sabotage Good Newt in the end. The former speaker is the Rex Grossman of Republican politics.

Biden strikes again!

Now, seriously. Can you really imagine even Dan Quayle or George W. Bush telling a crowd in San Francisco that "The Giants are on their way to the Super Bowl" three days before the Giants play the San Francisco 49ers for that privilege?

Well, Joe Biden did. To give him due credit, he quickly realized the gaffe he'd just committed (with the help of a roomful of lustily booing 49ers fans), recovered, and explained that he had been thinking of the San Francisco Giants and the World Series.

But still, Mr. President.... please keep this guy on the ticket!

HT: Drudge

And then, there were three and a half. Or maybe two.

Michelle Bachmann, an intelligent woman if something of a political lightweight and one who would do well to check her facts more carefully before saying anything about anything, is out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination.

Jon Huntsman, who in a rational world might well have been the nominee (being the best qualified candidate for president in either party, including the incumbent), is also out of the race, and has endorsed Mitt Romney.

Rick Perry, who was out of his depth from the word go and probably should never have gotten into the race in the first place, has also dropped out, and endorsed Newt Gingrich.

Ironic, that.

That leaves Romney, the presumptive nominee; Newt Gingrich, who has only hours before ABC's explosive interview with his first wife is broadcast and  destroys any shred of viability his campaign still has; Rick Santorum and Crazy Ron as the only remaining Republican candidates. And here, we haven't even held the South Carolina Primary yet.

But maybe four is too high a number. Gingrich will probably be out within the week, and Paul is half a candidate at best. The latter will continue to draw protest votes, but to the extent it's still a race at all (and it's surely not much of one), it's between Romney and Santorum.

HT: Drudge

ADDENDUM: Or not. Obviously, Marianne's interview didn't accomplish much in South Carolina, and seems not to have done too much good in Florida, either. And Newt is doing a better job of playing Romney- cool, in control, not rising to the bait, acting presidential- than he did the last time he was the front runner.

But being Newt, how long can it last?

"Please, Brer GOP, don't throw us Democrats in the briar patch!"

It seems that Nancy Pelosi- like Donna Brazile and certain far right Republicans even more divorced from reality than usual- is saying that Mitt Romney would be easy pickings in November.

Uh-huh. Tell it to the polls; Romney is the only Republican to lead the president for more than one brief, shining moment. He's consistently run better against Obama than anybody else, in fact. And tell it to the Republican voters of Iowa and New Hampshire, who aren't buying it for a moment. They know electability when they see it, and it's important enough to them to cause them to forego the ideological self-indulgence which, at least in Iowa, generally drives the Republican field so far to the right and the Democratic field so far to the left as to cast the electability of the ultimate winner into question.

This time they picked the guy who is going to beat Obama in November. Sorry, Nancy. I'm not buying it- and I don't think anybody but those ideologically purist far right Republicans are. I don't even think Donna Brazile really wants Obama to run against Romney.

The Democrats me of a story about Brer Rabbit. "Please, Republicans. Do anything to us Democrats you want. Roast us. Hang us. Tar and feather us. Beat us. Say "nih" to us. But please don't nominate Gingrich or Santorum or Perry or (snicker) Paul!"

Surest sign yet that the emergence of Mitt- the only Republican with a snowball's chance in the nether regions of beating Barack Obama- as the likely nominee has the Democrats scared silly.

Michael Medved on why Tebowmania is kosher

I'm no particular admirer of the Denver Broncos. In fact, as a Bears fan, I wish they'd come up with their own colors instead of stealing ours. Nor do I go ga-ga over Tim Tebow's late-game heroics this season, which actually fall considerably short of the hype they've gotten. The jury is still out as to whether this guy is the next coming of Johnny Unitas or of Rex Grossman; time will tell.

But I'm a big fan of Michael Medved, who has written quite perceptively about the wave of anti-Christian bigotry inspired by Tebow's frank and open "evangelical" piety.

A surprising number of Jews, it seems, are Tebow fans. In fact, Mr. M- an orthodox Jew himself- points out that Hebrew is read from right to left- and that 613 (3:16 read backwards) is the number of divine commands in the Torah, and thus a holy number to Jews.

Obama on pace to borrow $6.2 trillion

Remember this oldie but goodie from four years ago?




Mr. Obama is on pace to borrow $6.2 trillion in one term. That's more than all the presidents from Washington through Clinton combined.

The national debt will, at the current rate, be raised by $2 trillion more in Mr. Obama's first term than the figure he cites above, late in Dubyah's second.

HT: Drudge

Better late than never

A Jehovah's Witness Christmas:

Some thoughts on the New Hampshire Primary

Assuming that his Iowa win holds up (there is some controversy over whether his count may have been called in twenty votes higher than it should have been in one precinct), Mitt Romney is the first non-incumbent Republican in history to win in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

Ron bin Paul got 23% and finished (a distant) second in New Hampshire. He finished third and got 21% in Iowa. Could it really be that there are actually more extremist goofs on the voting rolls in the Granite State than in Iowa?

No, Emir Paul. You are most assuredly not "nipping at Mitt Romney's heels." He beat you by 17 points. Deal with it.

The New York Times projections (based on the average of the polls, and adjusted to compensate in weaknesses in the sampling and methods of each) show Romney ahead 7.6% in South Carolina (supposedly his toughest state) and 12.1% in Florida. Paul looks to finish a distant fourth in both South Carolina and in Florida. In the later, he is in single digits; in the former, he barely escapes them. The race- such as it is- may well be over by Ground Hog Day. Gingrich looked like a runaway winner in both states before Iowa- which, as we all know, has no effect on the subsequent direction of the race.

However sad it may make more delusional Republicans, PBS reported last night that its exit polls confirmed what seems to be the general consensus: that Romney was the candidate of all factions of the party, including conservatives. And the number one reason why people voted for him: he is regarded pretty much across the board as the most electable of the candidates.

Jon Huntsman, sad to say, is a dead man walking. The best-qualified candidate for president in twenty years staked everything on New Hampshire, and while he came away with a respectable third (17%), there is no place ahead where he figures to do any better. Rick Perry, of course, skipped New Hampshire. My guess is that he will finally get around to recognizing that he's toast after he bombs in South Carolina. When Newt figures out that he's the Ghost of Primary Nights Past is anybody's guess, but he needs to swallow that bitterness and stop handing President Obama ammunition for the fall campaign. It's not all about you, Mr. Speaker.

It should be said, though, that Newt showed some class in defending Romney after the latter's "I like firing people" gaffe. In context, Romney was saying that people should be able to "fire" health insurance companies that don't provide the services they need, and that having a lot of options among them is a good thing.

Obviously a foot-in-mouth moment that begged to be taken out of context, and most of Romney's opponents pounced.  But Gingrich showed some class: "The language was a little bit clumsy and open to misinterpretation and that might raise some questions about whether or not he's the right person to debate Barack Obama, which I think is an essential characteristic for this fall, but nonetheless, I thought it was unfair to suggest that he actually liked firing people."

Good news and bad news

A new CBS poll shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama by two points.

That's the good news.

The bad news is that the same poll shows Ron "Blame America First" Paul trailing the president by only one point.

But not to worry. Once again, once the American people generally become aware of just how radical Paul's positions on foreign policy and national defense really are, and the details of the affair of the newsletter, his strident calls for huge budget cuts and his admitted consistency in maintaining those loony positions will return him to his previous obscurity.

Ron Paul is a protest candidates. Protest candidates to well in tough times. But seldom, when the chips are down, are they seriously considered as presidents- especially when voting for them would be voting to endanger the safety of both one's country and one's children.

Meanwhile a new Gallup poll shows a greater percentage of candidates regarding Romney as an acceptable nominee than any other candidate.

And that includes a majority of conservatives.

Only 25% of conservatives and 35% of moderates and liberals- both surprisingly high figures- consider Paul an acceptable candidate. Only Jon Huntsman is considered less acceptable than Paul by conservatives. The percentage of moderates and liberals who consider Paul acceptable is ten points higher than the percentage of conservatives who do.

HT: Drudge

Sean Hannity tells it like it is

An epic moment in New Hampshire!

Ron Paul meets his only rival for his base in an epic confrontation.

The libertarian from Utopia Planita is confronted by Vermin Supreme, who- like Paul himself- ran previously, in 2008.  Supreme's platform: No flying monkeys in the streets of New York! Do something about the weather! Computer chip implants for all Americans! The legalization of human meat! Bigger family values! Make crime against the law!

"Vermin Supreme," his campaign staff promises,"will protect you and your children from the voices in his head, thru (sic) whatever means necessary." Contrast this with Paul, who would probably say that any hypothetical voices in his head were, in fact, your children's fault.

Some of Paul's positions, meanwhile, are explicated here. The question: which candidate's positions are the more bizarre?

HT: Drudge