BREAKING NEWS: Huckabee gives up in Iowa

Mike Huckabee has just effectively thrown in the towel.

I just received this email from his campaign:

Pastor -

I want to be the first one to encourage you to commend Governor Huckabee for doing the right thing by working ever harder to get out the vote on Caucus Night 2008 ... and share this with your friends and neighbors who are supporting or considering to support him.

I was at a press conference during the lunch hour at the Marriott in Des Moines where Huckabee's campaign had originally intended to show a couple of Romney's negative attack ads against Huckabee, and then launch an attack ad of our own. After some more consideration this morning, however, Governor Huckabee personally chose to pull the attack ad against Romney down, and at the last minute, change the format of the press conference from a "tit-for-tat response to Romney's negativity" theme to a "let's change the flavor of discourse from negative to positive" theme.

And then, to prove to the media that this wasn't just some political ploy, he showed the response attack ad, which was supposed to be launched at noon today on several TV stations, indicating that instead it will be pulled from networks immediately.

Once again, here is a man committed to doing the right thing.

He needs all the support we can muster for him, as the outcome will likely be determined by less than one vote per precinct.

I immediately sent back my response:

And he just lost the Iowa Caucus by doing so.

This is about the most demoralizing news this Huckabee supporter could have received on the eve of the caucus. I fear the governor has just decided to be the Mike Dukakis of 2008.

I can't find the words to express my disappointment in him.

As it happens, I also had this in my inbox, from NBC News:

DES MOINES, IA -- Want further proof that negative advertising works? After nearly two weeks of Romney airing TV ads in the this state criticizing his records on immigration and crime, Huckabee's standing in Iowa has slipped, according to the latest MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon poll. In the survey, Romney now leads Huckabee, 27%-23%, although it's within the 5% margin of error. They're followed by Thompson at 14%, McCain at 13%, and Giuliani and Paul tied at 5%. Three weeks ago -- before Romney began his contrast ads -- the poll had Huckabee comfortably leading Romney, 32%-20%. One of the reasons for Huck's decline: His lead over Romney among self-identified born-again Christians has dropped from 42%-8% to 34%-27%. And among weekly churchgoers, it has decreased from 38%-15% to 28%-27%.

It should be emphasized that the poll the NBC email refers to gives exactly the opposite result to the one the Reuters-Zogby poll which also ended yesterday. And doubtless the logic behind the Huckabee move (he made it a point to play the ad for the media at the press conference where he announced that he wouldn't use it) is to hope that his restraint, in contrast to Romney's willingness to take the low road, would somehow impress Iowa voters.

But it won't. The lessons we've learned over and over again- the Bush-Dukakis race in 1988 being the most vivid example- are that: 1) that negative advertising works; 2)that unless it's responded to promptly and vigorously, negative advertising is believed(even when, as in this case, it's based on distortions of the facts); and 3)that the only way fire can be fought is with fire: answering with negative (if more honest) advertising of one's own.

As highly as I think of the people of my adopted state, if Gov. Huckabee and his advisors seriously believe that the people of Iowa are going to be so impressed with his determination to take the high road that the effects of Romney's untruthful ads is going to be overdone... well, they're going to be in for a nasty surprise Thursday night.

With Romney's nonsense effectively unchallenged in the minds of Iowa's Republican voters, Romney's superiority in the ground game just about guarantees him the victory. While I hope I'm the only Huckabee supporter this demoralized by the decision not to fight back, I have a feeling that lots of us will be staying home on Thursday night.

Rolling back the huge gains Romney has made by going negative was Huckabee's only real chance of winning. And now, he's decided not to even try.

ADDENDUM: Here is a report on what MSNBC is calling "one of the most bizarre press conferences in recent times."

What was Huck thinking?