The lay of the land

According to Real Clear Politics,  President Trump's average approval rating in recent polls is thirteen points underwater, with 40.8% approving and 53.7% disapproving.

He's helped by the fact that the most recent Rasmussen poll only has him down by three points. Rasmussen and Fox polls use sampling methods which favor Republicans and are generally out of step with the others. Gallup, by contrast, has him eighteen points down, and CNN twenty.

The odds are against the Democrats retaking the Senate, but only because they are defending more seats than the Republicans. I expect them to retake the House, and despite the odds would not be shocked if they retook the Senate as well.

Look forward to skepticism about polls being replaced by accusations of Martians being bussed in to vote illegally for the Democrats. Donald Trump never ever loses fair and square.